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Birthdays and Probability

Tutor Pages » A-level Maths Article by Ian Edmond (BN3)

Ian Edmond A-level Maths Tutor (Brighton)
By: Ian Edmond (BN3)
Subject: A-level Maths
Last updated: 31/08/2009
Average Rating: rating-star rating-star rating-star rating-star-grey rating-star-grey (from 1 Ratings)
Tags: a-level maths, anecdotes and stories


I’ve always enjoyed the ability of maths to show us something about the world that just seems wrong. It’s great to be hit with something counter-intuitive and work out what is going on. My favourite example of this is the classic probability puzzle: if you have an average sized class of pupils, what are the chances that at least two of them share a birthday? When first presented with this, most people think that the chances are quite slim – after all, there are 365 days in a year, and a class only has around 30 pupils. Surely it’s not that likely at all?

The tools needed to analyse this are actually quite unsophisticated – it should be within the grasp of a year 8 student. I won’t go into detail here about how to work it out (perhaps you can do it yourself?), but the results, in case you’re not familiar with them, are interesting. You only need a class of 24 people for it to be more likely than not that at least two of them share a birthday, and if your class has 32 pupils (sadly the norm these days), then the chances are around three in four. Try it out with a few classes and see what results you get!

Of course, the only time I had the opportunity to try this out with a mathematics class, which did indeed have 32 pupils, I had hit on the one in four classes where all the pupils had different birthdays. Even the twins, who had managed to be born either side of midnight…



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Article Comments

Geoffrey Parfitt A-level Maths Tutor (Birmingham)
Posted by Geoffrey Parfitt (view profile) on 2010-09-05 16:14:50

I fully agree that discussing and working through a problem like this in class can impress students that mathematics can provide the precise solution of a conjecture, which might not match one's first expectations.

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Tutor Pages » A-level Maths Article by Ian Edmond (BN3)

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About the Author

Ian Edmond A-level Maths Tutor (Brighton) I am a friendly and enthusiastic mathematician, who has discovered in later life that the physical sciences have much to offer as well (I used to suffer from the snobbery of the pure mathematician!). I believe that there is much beauty to be found in mathematics and science, and try to convey this appreciation alongside the technical skills required to get you through your exams. Maths doesn't have to be the impenetrable list of technicalities it is often portrayed as!


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