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Probably Saturday morning is not the best time to talk about politics especially one of Russia. However I felt that interesting dynamics of this week political events in the country were worth a brief note.
Some of you might have heard about the scandal which happened on Tuesday in the Russian Academy of Science in Moscow when a Russian tycoon Mikhail Prokhorov separated from the party he had led for only over two months. So what was actually that about? The future will show and as we know from the Russian history we must usually talk about short-term future - it's hard to plan for longer periods in this country. Here is just a brief outline of the events and potential reasons behind them.
The political party "Right Cause" ('Pravoye delo' where 'delo' can mean deed, action, case, business, cause) was formed in February 2009. Noone had actually heard much about it till spring this year when the media and politicians started preparing to the Parliament elections in December 2011 and March 2012 Presidential elections.
It's in the end of March when one of the top politicians was rumoured to head the Right Cause. A month later another politician was suggested as a future head for the party but finally in May most press and television agreed that the most probable candidate for the leadership position would be Mr Prokhorov, a tycoon, billionaire who had never been involved in politics and generally behaved modest, neutral and with great deal of correctness. Later in May he confirmed the rumours were true and in June a 46-year old was almost unanimously voted for as a leader of the party.
Two summer months saw his rather active nationwide campaign which was almost solely built on his personality and name. I can't say that this party was for sure on the right wing as it had a number of rather left mottos proactively used. They started with engaging small businesses and white collars and quite soon realised the need to address a wider range of public if they were to make it for the Parliament the coming winter. Certain number of public figures, businesspeople, actors & actresses, non-government organisations' leaders, journalists had entered his party when on Tuesday, 13th September the party assembly opened in the Russian Academy of Science.
Mr Prokhorov was not present there and that's the first interesting issue. The leader of the party is not there to open a three day assembly where the core agendum is to decide who will be the party MP candidates. Around the lunchtime rumours of his possible resignation started circulating, media talked of mass disappointment among party regional leaders who didn't like the way Mr Prokhorov led the party.
One of the major visible causes for this was the support he had earlier given to Mr Roizman - former MP, CEO of a regional non-governmental organisation 'City without drugs' in the Urals region. It was claimed that the Presidential Administration did not want to see the forementioned person in the Parliament again. Mr Prokhorov's position was that either the popular blogger and activist Roizman enters the Parliament (he would probably get enough votes) alongside himself or Mr Prokhorov doesn't take part in this 'comedy of absurd'.
Wednesday saw the latter happen. Mr Prokhorov arrived to the Academy of Science while his opponents moved to another conference hall. In front of the numerous cameras and less numerous supporters he announced his exodus from the party, asked others to follow him and claimed that his short term goal would be to make Mr Surkov of the Presidential Administration -allegedly in charge of all what happens on the Russian political arena - resign. After that Mr Prokhorov would start a new party, he said, and decide whether he would run for the Presidential elections in March 2012. The Soviet pop-star Ms Pugacheva and formerly well-known TV presenter Mr Lyubimov made short speeches in support of their leader.
So why could that happen with the party allegedly proposed to be controlled opposition and with high chances to enter the Parliament later this year after less than half a year of activities? They talk of three major reasons:-
- Mr Prokhorov refused to be controlled by the Government, became too independent and thus was ousted from the politics unprecedently quickly. That's his own opinion as well. Though one should be reminded that he never speaks against the President and Prime Minister of the country.
- It is the second act of the larger well rehearsed drama where one would see Mr Prokhorov a proper opposition figure independent enough to gain votes of the increasing number of those who don't want to support the ruling party and any of the allegedly controlled opposition parties. Mr Prokhorov thus is rumoured to become quite popular, seen as an honest noble man who has his principles.
- Finally, some say that has been planned to redistribute resources in Russia, make one of the wealthiest people into exile and get new people into ownership of major Russian businesses Mr Prokhorov currently controls.
We'll probably soon see which one of these semi-conspiracy theories is true. Have a lovely week!
